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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability

FINAL
Pittsburgh Steelers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers
6-3
29
VS
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
5-4
24
Market line: DET -6.5, total 48.5 · Model expected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 21.0 – Detroit Lions 27.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
53
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied ← actual result
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 53.

O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 44
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 48
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
40% over ✓60% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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