New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Jets
3-8
6
VS
New Orleans Saints
3-10
29
Market line: NO -3.5, total 39.5 · Model expected score: New York Jets 18.0 – New Orleans Saints 21.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Saints 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
New Orleans Saints won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
35
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Margin of Victory — New Orleans Saints (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 35.
O/U LINE 30
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 39.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
18% over82% under ✓
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