Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-8
21
VS
Houston Texans
6-5
23
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 85%
ACTUAL RESULT
Houston Texans won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
44
Margin of Victory — Houston Texans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
15%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
29%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 44.
O/U LINE 30
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 40
42% over ✓58% under
O/U LINE 44
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Houston Texans (Home)
Negative means Houston Texans lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -8
Median: +14
P95: +35