Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
3-5
9
VS
Tennessee Titans
1-12
26
Market line: KC -3.5, total 37.5 · Model expected score: Kansas City Chiefs 20.5 – Tennessee Titans 17.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tennessee Titans won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
35
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Margin of Victory — Tennessee Titans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 35.
O/U LINE 30
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
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