ARI20
FINAL
40HOU
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Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans — Win Probability

FINAL
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona Cardinals
2-8
20
VS
Houston Texans logo
Houston Texans
5-5
40
Market line: HOU -7.5, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Arizona Cardinals 17.5 – Houston Texans 25.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Houston Texans won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
60
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Margin of Victory — Houston Texans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 60.

O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 48
34% over ✓66% under
O/U LINE 52
24% over ✓76% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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