Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Denver Broncos
6-3
24
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
2-6
17
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Broncos 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Denver Broncos won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
41
Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 41.
O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
19% over81% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Negative means Las Vegas Raiders lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -29
Median: -7
P95: +14