San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns — Win Probability
FINAL
San Francisco 49ers
6-4
26
VS
Cleveland Browns
3-7
8
Market line: SF -5.5, total 41.5 · Model expected score: San Francisco 49ers 23.5 – Cleveland Browns 18.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
San Francisco 49ers won by 18
COMBINED SCORE
34
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Margin of Victory — Cleveland Browns (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 34.
O/U LINE 30
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 40
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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