New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Saints
1-9
17
VS
Miami Dolphins
4-4
21
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Dolphins 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
Miami Dolphins won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
38
Margin of Victory — Miami Dolphins (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 38.
O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
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