Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-5
14
VS
Los Angeles Chargers
3-3
31
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chargers 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Chargers won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
45
Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
18%
Won by 21+
21%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 45.
O/U LINE 30
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 40
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 48
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
Negative means Los Angeles Chargers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +10
P95: +32