Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability
FINAL
Green Bay Packers
5-2
31
VS
Detroit Lions
5-2
24
Market line: GB -2.5, total 48.5 · Model expected score: Green Bay Packers 25.4 – Detroit Lions 23.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
55
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
57%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 55.
O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 44
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 48
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
39% over ✓61% under
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