Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys — Win Probability
FINAL
Philadelphia Eagles
5-1
21
VS
Dallas Cowboys
2-3
24
Market line: PHI -3.5, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Philadelphia Eagles 27.5 – Dallas Cowboys 24.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Eagles 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Dallas Cowboys won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
45
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Margin of Victory — Dallas Cowboys (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
60%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 45.
O/U LINE 30
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 40
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 44
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 48
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
48% over52% under ✓
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