New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
8-3
26
VS
Cincinnati Bengals
2-5
20
Market line: NE -5.5, total 50.5 · Model expected score: New England Patriots 28.0 – Cincinnati Bengals 22.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Patriots 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
46
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Margin of Victory — Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 44
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 48
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
46% over54% under ✓
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