Jacksonville Jaguars vs Arizona Cardinals — Win Probability
FINAL
Jacksonville Jaguars
5-4
27
VS
Arizona Cardinals
2-5
24
Market line: JAX -1.5, total 46.5 · Model expected score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24.0 – Arizona Cardinals 22.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jaguars 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Jacksonville Jaguars won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
51
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Margin of Victory — Arizona Cardinals (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
54%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
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