Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
2-7
24
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
2-4
10
Market line: LV -2.5, total 37.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 17.5 – Las Vegas Raiders 20.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raiders 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cleveland Browns won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
34
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Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
42%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 34.
O/U LINE 30
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
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