Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans — Win Probability
FINAL
Houston Texans
3-5
16
VS
Tennessee Titans
0-8
13
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Houston Texans won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
29
Margin of Victory — Tennessee Titans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 29.
O/U LINE 30
72% over28% under ✓
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Tennessee Titans (Home)
Negative means Tennessee Titans lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -29
Median: -7
P95: +14