Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers — Win Probability
FINAL
Cincinnati Bengals
2-4
12
VS
Pittsburgh Steelers
4-1
34
Market line: PIT -5.5, total 49.5 · Model expected score: Cincinnati Bengals 22.0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Steelers 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
46
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Margin of Victory — Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 40
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 44
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 48
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
42% over58% under ✓
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