New York Giants vs Chicago Bears — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Giants
1-5
20
VS
Chicago Bears
4-3
24
Market line: CHI -3.5, total 45.5 · Model expected score: New York Giants 21.0 – Chicago Bears 24.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bears 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
Chicago Bears won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
44
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Margin of Victory — Chicago Bears (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
39%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 44.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 44
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 45.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
31% over69% under ✓
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