New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
7-3
28
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5-2
23
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
51
Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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