Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
2-5
20
VS
New York Jets
1-5
27
Market line: NYJ -1.5, total 37.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 18.0 – New York Jets 19.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jets 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
New York Jets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
47
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Margin of Victory — New York Jets (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
45%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 40
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 44
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 48
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
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