Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts — Win Probability
FINAL
Atlanta Falcons
2-4
25
VS
Indianapolis Colts
6-2
31
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Colts 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
Indianapolis Colts won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
56
Margin of Victory — Indianapolis Colts (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
16%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 56.
O/U LINE 30
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over ✓63% under
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