San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants — Win Probability
FINAL
San Francisco 49ers
4-3
34
VS
New York Giants
1-4
24
Market line: SF -8.5, total 45.5 · Model expected score: San Francisco 49ers 27.0 – New York Giants 18.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
San Francisco 49ers won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
58
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Margin of Victory — New York Giants (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
74%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 58.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 44
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 45.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 52
31% over ✓69% under
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