Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability
FINAL
Minnesota Vikings
1-1
27
VS
Detroit Lions
3-1
24
Market line: DET -7.5, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Minnesota Vikings 20.0 – Detroit Lions 27.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Minnesota Vikings won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
51
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
16%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 51.
O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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