Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
2-1
21
VS
Buffalo Bills
4-2
28
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
49
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
55%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 49.
O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 44
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 48
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
46% over54% under ✓
Unlock Full Game Stats
Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
Sign Up Free