Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
Carolina Panthers
3-4
16
VS
Green Bay Packers
3-1
13
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
Carolina Panthers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
29
Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
21%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
22%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 29.
O/U LINE 30
84% over16% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Negative means Green Bay Packers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +11
P95: +32