Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Atlanta Falcons
2-3
23
VS
New England Patriots
6-3
24
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Patriots 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
47
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
42%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 44
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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