Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts — Win Probability
FINAL
Tennessee Titans
0-6
14
VS
Indianapolis Colts
5-1
38
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Colts 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
Indianapolis Colts won by 24
COMBINED SCORE
52
Margin of Victory — Indianapolis Colts (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
21%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
21%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 52.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 44
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
39% over ✓61% under
O/U LINE 52
28% over72% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Indianapolis Colts (Home)
Negative means Indianapolis Colts lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +11
P95: +32