Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens — Win Probability
FINAL
Chicago Bears
3-2
16
VS
Baltimore Ravens
1-2
30
Market line: BAL -5.5, total 48.5 · Model expected score: Chicago Bears 21.5 – Baltimore Ravens 27.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Ravens 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Baltimore Ravens won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
46
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Margin of Victory — Baltimore Ravens (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
12%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 44
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 48
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
40% over60% under ✓
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