Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers — Win Probability
FINAL
Buffalo Bills
3-2
40
VS
Carolina Panthers
3-3
9
Market line: BUF -7.5, total 47.5 · Model expected score: Buffalo Bills 27.5 – Carolina Panthers 20.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 31
COMBINED SCORE
49
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Margin of Victory — Carolina Panthers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 49.
O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 44
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 47.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 52
37% over63% under ✓
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