Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs — Win Probability
FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders
2-2
0
VS
Kansas City Chiefs
1-1
31
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 31
COMBINED SCORE
31
Margin of Victory — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
21%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
22%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 31.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Negative means Kansas City Chiefs lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -11
Median: +10
P95: +32