Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
Cincinnati Bengals
2-1
18
VS
Green Bay Packers
1-1
27
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 84%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
45
Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
16%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
28%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 45.
O/U LINE 30
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Negative means Green Bay Packers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -8
Median: +13
P95: +35