Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability
FINAL
Washington Commanders
2-0
27
VS
Atlanta Falcons
0-2
34
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Commanders 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Atlanta Falcons won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
61
Margin of Victory — Atlanta Falcons (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 61.
O/U LINE 30
97% over ✓3% under
O/U LINE 40
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 44
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 48
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 52
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 54.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
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