Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans — Win Probability
FINAL
Tennessee Titans
0-3
0
VS
Houston Texans
0-4
26
Market line: HOU -5.5, total 38.5 · Model expected score: Tennessee Titans 16.5 – Houston Texans 21.9
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Houston Texans won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
26
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Margin of Victory — Houston Texans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 26.
O/U LINE 30
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 38.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
15% over85% under ✓
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