New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Saints
0-3
19
VS
Buffalo Bills
2-1
31
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
50
Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
19%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
21%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
24%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 50.
O/U LINE 30
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 40
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 48
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Negative means Buffalo Bills lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -10
Median: +11
P95: +33