LAC18
FINAL
21NYG
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Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Chargers logo
Los Angeles Chargers
1-0
18
VS
New York Giants logo
New York Giants
0-2
21
Market line: LAC -3.5, total 39.5 · Model expected score: Los Angeles Chargers 21.5 – New York Giants 18.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chargers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
New York Giants won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
39
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Margin of Victory — New York Giants (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
60%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 39.

O/U LINE 30
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 39.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
49% over51% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
17% over83% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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