Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
1-2
10
VS
Detroit Lions
1-1
34
Market line: DET -10.5, total 46.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 18.0 – Detroit Lions 28.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lions 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
Detroit Lions won by 24
COMBINED SCORE
44
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Margin of Victory — Detroit Lions (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
21%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 44.
O/U LINE 30
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 40
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 44
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 46.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
34% over66% under ✓
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