New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Jets
0-2
27
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2-0
29
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
56
Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
26%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
17%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 56.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 44
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 45.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 52
31% over ✓69% under
Projected Margin Range — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
Negative means Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -13
Median: +9
P95: +30