Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns — Win Probability
FINAL
Green Bay Packers
1-0
10
VS
Cleveland Browns
0-2
13
Market line: GB -5.5, total 37.5 · Model expected score: Green Bay Packers 21.5 – Cleveland Browns 16.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cleveland Browns won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
23
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Margin of Victory — Cleveland Browns (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
66%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 23.
O/U LINE 30
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 37.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
14% over86% under ✓
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