ARI15
FINAL
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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona Cardinals
2-0
15
VS
San Francisco 49ers logo
San Francisco 49ers
3-0
16
Market line: SF -3.5, total 40.5 · Model expected score: Arizona Cardinals 18.5 – San Francisco 49ers 22.0
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
San Francisco 49ers won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
31
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Margin of Victory — San Francisco 49ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
40%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 31.

O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
19% over81% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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