Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans — Win Probability
FINAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-0
20
VS
Houston Texans
0-1
19
Market line: HOU -1.5, total 41.5 · Model expected score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.0 – Houston Texans 21.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Texans 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
39
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Margin of Victory — Houston Texans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 39.
O/U LINE 30
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 40
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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