San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints — Win Probability
FINAL
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
26
VS
New Orleans Saints
0-1
21
Market line: SF -6.5, total 44.5 · Model expected score: San Francisco 49ers 25.5 – New Orleans Saints 19.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
49ers 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
San Francisco 49ers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
47
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Margin of Victory — New Orleans Saints (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
69%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 47.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 44
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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