New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability
FINAL
New England Patriots
0-1
33
VS
Miami Dolphins
0-1
27
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Dolphins 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
60
Margin of Victory — Miami Dolphins (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 60.
O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 44
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 48
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
40% over ✓60% under
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