JAX27
FINAL
31CIN
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals — Win Probability

FINAL
Jacksonville Jaguars logo
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-1
27
VS
Cincinnati Bengals logo
Cincinnati Bengals
1-0
31
Market line: CIN -5.5, total 50.5 · Model expected score: Jacksonville Jaguars 22.5 – Cincinnati Bengals 28.1
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bengals 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cincinnati Bengals won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
58
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Margin of Victory — Cincinnati Bengals (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 58.

O/U LINE 30
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 40
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 44
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 48
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 50.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
46% over ✓54% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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