DET13
FINAL
27GB
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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit Lions
0-0
13
VS
Green Bay Packers logo
Green Bay Packers
0-0
27
Market line: GB -1.5, total 49.5 · Model expected score: Detroit Lions 24.0 – Green Bay Packers 25.5
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
40
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 40.

O/U LINE 30
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 40
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
42% over58% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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