Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability
FINAL
Carolina Panthers
0-0
10
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars
0-0
26
Market line: JAX -2.5, total 40.5 · Model expected score: Carolina Panthers 19.0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21.5
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jaguars 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
Jacksonville Jaguars won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
36
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 36.
O/U LINE 30
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 40
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
19% over81% under ✓
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