Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Seattle Seahawks
3-1
29
VS
New England Patriots
3-2
13
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Seahawks 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Seattle Seahawks won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
42
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 42.
O/U LINE 30
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 40
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 44
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 45.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
31% over69% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — New England Patriots (Home)
Negative means New England Patriots lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -25
Median: -4
P95: +18