New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Saints
5-8
19
VS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9-3
27
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Buccaneers 85%
ACTUAL RESULT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
46
Margin of Victory — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
15%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
20%
Won by 21+
30%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 46.
O/U LINE 30
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 40
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 43.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 48
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
26% over74% under ✓
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