Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders — Win Probability
FINAL
Los Angeles Chargers
8-4
34
VS
Las Vegas Raiders
4-11
20
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chargers 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Chargers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
54
Margin of Victory — Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
66%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 54.
O/U LINE 30
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 40
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 40.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 44
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 48
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 52
20% over ✓80% under
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