Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos — Win Probability
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
12-2
0
VS
Denver Broncos
7-7
38
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Broncos 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
Denver Broncos won by 38
COMBINED SCORE
38
Margin of Victory — Denver Broncos (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
23%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
21%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
20%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 38.
O/U LINE 30
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 38.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
15% over85% under ✓
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Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
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