Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots — Win Probability
FINAL
Buffalo Bills
12-3
16
VS
New England Patriots
3-12
23
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
New England Patriots won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
39
Margin of Victory — New England Patriots (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
56%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
4%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 39.
O/U LINE 30
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 40
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 41 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
21% over79% under ✓
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Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
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