Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Dolphins
6-6
20
VS
Cleveland Browns
2-11
3
Market line: MIA -3.5, total 41.5 · Model expected score: Miami Dolphins 22.5 – Cleveland Browns 19.0
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Dolphins 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Miami Dolphins won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
23
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Margin of Victory — Cleveland Browns (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 23.
O/U LINE 30
80% over20% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 41.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
22% over78% under ✓
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